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An in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US including a discussion of global factors that will affect these near term forecasts.
A forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends including interest rate and currency forecasts.
Financial Markets Monthly
Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE
October 10, 2024
The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad
September 18, 2024
The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.
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Financial Markets
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Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE
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Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows
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Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering
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At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening
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Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle
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It’s hard to leave (higher rates) when you can’t find the door (to lower inflation)
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BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated
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U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy
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New rules
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Ordinary pain
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Special edition – keeping an eye on Canada’s credit rating
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Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay
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Taking the long way home
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Letting it be – central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in
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Central banks hit “hopeful pause” on rate hikes
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Interest rates to stay higher for longer
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Triangulating terminal: take two
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Crunch time
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The waiting is the hardest part
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New legs, or familiar lags?
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Know when to hold ’em
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Triangulating terminal
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Past the peak
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Searching for the turning point
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Crossing the line(s)
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Front-loading can’t guarantee a soft landing
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Flagging growth won’t derail central bank rate hikes
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Shrinking runway for a soft landing
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Will tough-talking central banks follow through?
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End of an era
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Central banks playing catch-up
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Conflict in Europe brings more uncertainty, more inflation
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Moving on from pandemic stimulus
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Omicron won’t deter hawkish central banks
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Central banks weigh inflation, new variant
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Central banks feeling the pressure
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Central banks shuffling toward the exit
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Economic recovery delayed but not derailed
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Navigating the Delta variant
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Central bank divergence re-emerging
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Economies and markets in wait-and-see mode
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Central banks on different wavelengths
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Vaccines, restrictions driving near-term divergence
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Inflation Prospects Prompt Bond Market Reset
Economic Momentum ‘Strained’ in Early 2021
Rising COVID Cases Make for a Challenging Start to 2021
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Vaccine Rollout Boosts 2021 Growth Prospects
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The Balancing Act: Containment vs. Recovery
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Second Wave Threatens Recovery Momentum
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Economic Check-up after a Very Long 6 Months
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Economic Recovery Underway, but Risks Abound
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Managing COVID Outbreaks Key for the Path to Economic Recovery
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After Unprecedented Declines, an Uneasy Recovery Begins
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After the Fall
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Record-breaking Declines Ahead