Timely Economic Forecasts and Analysis.
Economic Analysis
Business survey gives green light for larger rate cuts
October 11, 2024
Details suggest that demand is still weak and businesses continue to expect inflation pressures will further unwind in Canada.
Fed cuts 50 basis points with more to come
September 18, 2024
The Fed took pains to reinforce the view that this initial 50 basis point cut is the beginning of a “recalibration” cycle.
Featured Insights
The Federal Reserve Buys Time: Rates on hold and lips sealed
January 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve keeps policy rates unchanged, avoids discussing policy changes from Washington.
A playbook for how to measure a tariff shock in Canada
January 22, 2025
As the threat of tariffs loom over Canada, here is a framework that will guide economists—and everyone else—through the complicated path ahead.
Navigating 2025: Looking better and unsettling all at once
January 7, 2025
Here are the key economic themes that will shape how businesses and governments navigate opportunities and risks on the horizon, along with their…
Proof Point: Canadian industries and provinces most exposed to U.S. tariff threat
December 10, 2024
Restrictions to the flow of goods and services across the U.S. border could seriously harm Canadian businesses and communities.
Immigration cuts will help narrow Canada’s housing gap but won’t solve crisis
December 6, 2024
The drastic reduction in immigration targets announced by the federal government is one of the more consequential policy reversals in recent memory.
Proof point: Why Canada is seeing an uneven recovery among households
December 6, 2024
Households in aggregate are sitting on record levels of savings. But under the surface, there are clear signs the average Canadian consumer is…
Canadian Housing
Canada’s housing market recovery hits a bump but expected stay on track
January 15, 2025
Interest rate cuts in Canada set the housing market on a recovery path in 2024, but there have been bumps along the way as demonstrated by activity in…
Canada’s housing markets see a mixed finish to 2024
January 8, 2025
The fall’s strong market rally lost a lot of steam in some of Canada’s major housing markets as resale transactions fell markedly in Calgary and…
Homebuyers get some affordability relief but strains endure
December 20, 2024
The deep housing market slump got the ball rolling last year with a modest depreciation of property values tamping down homeownership costs.
More supply and cooling demand ease Canadian rental market pressures in 2024
December 19, 2024
Canada’s rental market eased slightly in 2024 after a year of unprecedented tightness, but affordability challenges persist.
Lower rates stoked Canada’s housing market momentum this fall
December 16, 2024
Canada’s housing market action got hotter as the temperature cooled this fall.
Canada’s housing market ends the fall season on an upswing
December 5, 2024
Most major areas reported rises in resales and prices from October, adding to gains realized the previous month.
Economy and Markets
Take it easy, higher Fed terminal and weaker loonie shouldn’t make the BoC queasy
January 10, 2025
With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.
Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges
December 12, 2024
Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and…
Tangled up in trade: The steep cost of closing doors
December 11, 2024
International trade risks are back in focus as the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office—but for now, economic data is tracking…
Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains
November 13, 2024
U.S. government spending will continue to add to growth, but it may come at the cost of higher inflation, interest rates, and less savings for the…
Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE
October 10, 2024
The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency…
Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad
September 18, 2024
The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.
Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis
Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens
December 16, 2024
Lower revenues and new spending measures have resulted in deeper deficits over the course of the fiscal plan—including a whopping $22 billion…
Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges
December 12, 2024
Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and…
Ontario’s economic outlook brightens but immigration targets increase risks
December 6, 2024
Recent changes to the federal immigration plan weren’t accounted for in the underlying economic assumptions, adding downside risk to the fiscal…
Smart money: Focused fiscal policy needed more than ever
December 3, 2024
Much has changed since the spring of Budget 2024. The feds’ lower immigration targets will hamper the growth engine the Canadian economy.
Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending
November 22, 2024
Quebec’s 2024 economic update looks uneventful on the surface, but more is happening underneath with larger federal transfers and new spending.
Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad
September 18, 2024
The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.
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