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Timely Economic Forecasts and Analysis.
Economic Analysis
Business survey gives green light for larger rate cuts
October 11, 2024
Details suggest that demand is still weak and businesses continue to expect inflation pressures will further unwind in Canada.
Fed cuts 50 basis points with more to come
September 18, 2024
The Fed took pains to reinforce the view that this initial 50 basis point cut is the beginning of a “recalibration” cycle.
Featured Insights
Immigration cuts will help narrow Canada’s housing gap but won’t solve crisis
December 6, 2024
The drastic reduction in immigration targets announced by the federal government is one of the more consequential policy reversals in recent memory.
Proof point: Why Canada is seeing an uneven recovery among households
December 6, 2024
Households in aggregate are sitting on record levels of savings. But under the surface, there are clear signs the average Canadian consumer is…
U.S. GDP Update
December 6, 2024
The economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q2, almost double the 1.4% growth rate in Q1.
U.S. Labour Market
December 6, 2024
October’s payroll gain was heavily distorted by the impact of hurricanes, a large manufacturing sector strike, and an unusually low survey response…
Canadian GDP Update
December 6, 2024
GDP data in Canada continues to paint a soft picture of the economy, with output growth stagnating in August and downward revisions to June and July…
Podcast: The 10-Minute Take
October 31, 2024
Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the jumbo BoC interest rate cut, why it was bigger and what to expect going forward, given the new immigration…
Canadian Housing
Slowly but surely—Canada’s homebuyers begin to respond to rate cuts
October 15, 2024
Lower interest rates got the wheels turning a little faster in September for homebuyers.
Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop
October 8, 2024
Mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities fell as a share of median household income in Canada to 59.5% from 61% in Q1.
New listings shoot higher in most major markets
October 7, 2024
The influx is continuing to build inventory—which is still hovering near the equivalent of four months of supply.
Canada’s housing market still in a wait-and-see mode
September 16, 2024
Interest rates may be coming down, but most Canadian homebuyers remain unconvinced that now is the right time to make a purchase.
Rate cuts have yet to pull Canada’s housing markets out of their slump
September 6, 2024
Early reports on August home sales showed only small increases in most markets including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Montreal.
Housing market activity static again after June bump
August 15, 2024
Resales pulled back modestly—dipping 0.7% between June and July at the national level—partially offsetting a 3.5% advance in June.
Economy and Markets
Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE
October 10, 2024
The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency…
Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad
September 18, 2024
The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.
Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows
September 11, 2024
Softening U.S. labour markets and lower inflation leave the Fed on track to kick of an easing cycle starting in September, one of the last major…
Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering
August 14, 2024
More central banks are committing to cutting interest rates from elevated levels.
At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening
July 11, 2024
We now expect the Fed to cut rates in September—earlier than our prior December assumption—with a gradual easing cycle to follow.
Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle
June 13, 2024
Bank of Canada and ECB both kickstarted the easing cycles in June but neither is expected to race rates to the bottom.
Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis
Ontario’s economic outlook brightens but immigration targets increase risks
December 6, 2024
Recent changes to the federal immigration plan weren’t accounted for in the underlying economic assumptions, adding downside risk to the fiscal…
Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad
September 18, 2024
The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.
Rate cuts won’t spur immediate rebound in Canada’s economy
June 12, 2024
The global economic growth backdrop has shown signs of improvement, but Canada’s economy continues to underperform.
Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes
April 16, 2024
Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept the deficit…
Manitoba Budget 2024: Deficit cut in half but debt burden continues to grow
April 3, 2024
The provincial debt burden is expected to be the heaviest on record, reaching 39.1% of gross domestic product by fiscal 2025-26.
Ontario Budget 2024: Balancing priorities, not the books
March 27, 2024
Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year’s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25. Return to balance has been delayed…
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